Alan Ripa, P.C.

TOWN OF PARADISE VALLEY €¢ 2026 MARKET INTELLIGENCE THE SIZZLE REPORT What the luxury numbers are really saying about Paradise Valley real estate — beyond the headline sale price. The headline: buyers are gaining leverage. Paradise Valley remains one of Arizona's most valuable luxury markets. But the market is no longer rewarding aggressive pricing the way it once did. The most revealing number is often not the final list-to-sale percentage — it is how far the seller ultimately had to move from the original asking price. 18.0% AVERAGE ORIGINAL-LIST-TO-SALE DISCOUNT IN THE PRELIMINARY VERIFIED SAMPLE 20.0% MEDIAN ORIGINAL-LIST-TO-SALE DISCOUNT IN THE PRELIMINARY VERIFIED SAMPLE 5.99% AVERAGE FINAL-LIST-TO-SALE DISCOUNT 20–35% ILLUSTRATIVE GAP THAT CAN EXIST BETWEEN ORIGINAL EXPECTATION AND ACTUAL SALE THE SIZZLE: A home can look like it sold for only 5% below the final list price — while actually selling 20% to 35% below the seller's original expectation. That is the story a conventional sale-to-list statistic can miss. What is happening on the ground? • Sellers are chasing the market downward. Multiple price reductions are appearing before a buyer commits. • Time matters. Homes that miss the market can spend months accumulating exposure while the seller repeatedly resets the price. • Luxury buyers are negotiating. The strongest buyers increasingly have the patience to wait for value rather than chase an overpriced property. • Price discipline is becoming more important. Correctly positioned homes can still command extraordinary prices, but an aggressive starting number can become a liability. The transaction evidence PROPERTY ORIGINAL LIST DOCUMENTED REDUCTIONS FINAL LIST SALE BELOW ORIGINAL BELOW FINAL DOM 8631 N Avenida Del Sol $17.000M $15.500M → $14.750M → $13.900M → $12.900M → $12.400M $12.400M $11.750M -$5.250M / -30.9% -$650K / -5.2% 275 8060 N Mummy Mountain Rd* $11.500M $8.150M → $7.995M → $7.800M $7.800M $7.500M -$4.000M / -34.8%* -$300K / -3.8% 285 5717 E Via Los Ranchos $14.000M $12.999M $12.999M $11.200M -$2.800M / -20.0% -$1.799M / -13.8% 157+ 6135 N 51st Pl $13.500M $12.995M → $12.795M → $12.495M $12.495M $12.300M -$1.200M / -8.9% -$195K / -1.6% 161 5517 N 68th Pl $8.999888M $8.499999M $8.499999M $7.650M -$1.349888M / -15.0% -$849999 / -10.0% ~138 5512 N 67th Pl $4.100M $3.977M → $3.744M → $3.500M $3.500M $3.250M -$850K / -20.7% -$250K / -7.1% 105 9829 N 49th Pl $2.999M $2.750M $2.750M $2.650M -$349K / -11.6% -$100K / -3.6% 190 9497 N 55th St $4.395M None documented $4.395M $4.200M -$195K / -4.4% -$195K / -4.4% 113 *8060 N Mummy Mountain Rd had an earlier January 2025 listing at $11.5M that was removed; its later campaign began at $8.15M. The $11.5M figure is therefore an earlier documented asking price, not the opening price of the final campaign. The price-segment story SEGMENT WHAT THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS $1M–$2M More conventional market behavior, but value sensitivity remains important. Buyers have options and are increasingly price-conscious. $2M–$5M Visible negotiation and price reductions. Correct pricing matters; stale listings can require meaningful resets. $5M–$10M Longer marketing periods and larger dollar adjustments become more consequential. Buyers can be highly selective. $10M–$20M Large original-to-sale gaps are particularly important. Several verified examples show sellers moving millions before a closing. $20M+ Thin transaction volume makes broad conclusions difficult. Individual properties can behave very differently, so case-by-case analysis is essential. Why the original list price matters “The final list price tells you where the seller eventually arrived. The original list price tells you how far the market made the seller travel.” That distinction is critical in a correcting luxury market. A property that is eventually reduced from $17 million to $12.4 million and sells for $11.75 million appears to be only 5.2% below its final asking price. But the buyer actually acquired it for 30.9% less than the original $17 million expectation. The bigger market backdrop • Paradise Valley Home Data reported a roughly $4.11M median sold price, 72 days on market, and 94.7% sold-to-list for its May–July 2026 snapshot. • Redfin's current Paradise Valley market page reported a median sale price around $4.20M and median days on market around 103 days, with a substantial share of listings experiencing price drops. • An August 2026 85253 snapshot showed a median sale price around $4.2M, median list price around $5.25M, approximately 167 DOM, and 15.6 months of supply. • At the $10M+ level, Q1 2026 activity was unusually strong, with 21 closings reported — evidence that luxury demand has not disappeared. The issue is increasingly price versus value, not simply whether buyers exist. Bottom line Paradise Valley is not a “no buyers” market. It is a selective, value-driven market in which buyers are increasingly willing to wait, negotiate and let overpriced properties come toward them. The opportunity for sellers is still substantial: Paradise Valley can produce extraordinary sales prices. But the data suggests that pricing strategy at launch is becoming one of the most important determinants of the eventual outcome. For buyers: patience can create leverage, particularly where a property has accumulated months of exposure and multiple reductions. For sellers: the goal should not be to “chase” the market with a series of reductions. The stronger strategy is to establish a defensible market position before the property launches. Sources & methodology Transaction histories were reviewed from publicly available listing/sale histories including Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin and Compass. Market context includes Paradise Valley Home Data, Redfin, Arizona Homes and Condos, Private Client Group and local market reporting. Only documented price events were used in the transaction table. This is market intelligence, not an appraisal, broker price opinion, or complete ARMLS export. The verified transaction sample is preliminary and not intended to represent every Paradise Valley closing during the period. Paradise Valley Home Data: https://paradisevalleyhomedata.com/
Redfin Paradise Valley Market: https://www.redfin.com/city/13625/AZ/Paradise-Valley/housing-market
Arizona Homes & Condos: https://arizonahomesandcondos.com/paradise-valley-arizona-real-estate/
Private Client Group: https://privateclientgroupagents.com/july-2026-arizona-luxury-real-estate-market-update/ THE SIZZLE REPORT • TOWN OF PARADISE VALLEY, ARIZONA Prepared as a market-information presentation. Data and calculations are approximate and subject to verification against MLS and recorded transaction records. THE SIZZLE REPORT • TOWN OF PARADISE VALLEY, ARIZONA Prepared as a market-information presentation. Data and calculations are approximate and subject to verification against MLS and recorded transaction records.